Sub-Saharan Africa's Growth Depends on Quality Education

In a recently published article, Michele Fornino and Andrew Tiffin emphasize the critical need for increased investment in education to harness the potential of sub-Saharan Africa's rapidly growing population. As the region’s population is expected to double to 2 billion by 2050, with the working-age group (ages 15 to 64) driving much of this growth, the authors argue that substantial improvements in education are essential for economic prosperity.

The authors note that while sub-Saharan Africa has made significant strides in expanding access to education over the past few decades, educational outcomes still lag behind those of other emerging markets and developing economies. Currently, nearly 30 percent of school-age children in the region do not attend school, and the primary school completion rate is only 65 percent, compared to a global average of 87 percent. Additionally, the literacy rate for those aged 15 to 24 is just 75 percent, far below the nearly 90 percent seen in other developing regions. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated these challenges, with school closures leading to significant learning losses, in some cases undoing years of progress.

One major factor contributing to these educational shortfalls is inadequate government spending. In 2020, the median education budget in sub-Saharan Africa was about 3.5 percent of GDP, falling short of the international recommendation of at least 4 percent. According to Fornino and Tiffin, achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal of universal primary and secondary education by 2030 may require doubling education expenditures as a share of GDP, necessitating increased funding from both public and private sources.

While increased spending is necessary, the authors stress that it is equally important to ensure that these funds are used efficiently. Currently, only 15 percent of students in primary and secondary schools in the region achieve more than the minimum learning outcomes, and teacher training rates have declined steadily over the past two decades.

Fornino and Tiffin highlight the long-term economic benefits of investing in education, including higher productivity and increased foreign direct investment, as detailed in the latest IMF Fiscal Monitor. They urge governments in sub-Saharan Africa to protect education budgets despite fiscal constraints and to implement best practices in public financial management to raise domestic revenue and ensure that educational funds are effectively allocated.

Furthermore, the authors call on donors and international organizations to maintain or expand their financial support for education in the region. This support is crucial for developing a productive labor force that will be increasingly needed in a rapidly aging world and for positioning sub-Saharan Africa as a dynamic source of new demand for consumption and investment.

The article concludes by underscoring the importance of better connecting the region's abundant human resources with capital from advanced economies and major emerging markets. With the right educational policies, sub-Saharan Africa could attract long-term investments, technology, and expertise, ultimately unlocking the full potential of the region’s youth and preparing them for the future.