1 كانون1/ديسمبر 2023
The omnipresence of artificial intelligence (AI) is on the horizon, poised to elevate productivity to unprecedented levels and usher in a daily influx of new products, cures, and innovations. This surge extends to countless previously inconceivable businesses, scaling at remarkable speeds and contributing to substantial improvements in well-being. From AI-driven surgical instruments guiding operations to the laser-driven elimination of weeds in agriculture, the applications are vast, prompting consideration of other potential domains for AI integration.
Yet, beyond these advancements, a pivotal question arises: is the world becoming more unpredictable and fragile? As terrorists explore intelligent cyberweapons, the potential for harm escalates. Conversely, there is hope that AI can contribute to stability by precisely targeting armed individuals while leaving civilians unharmed.
The beginning of 2023 marked a transformative moment—the breakdown of barriers distinguishing human communication from machine communication. This marks the onset of a world-altering technological revolution poised to reshape politics, economies, and societies globally. Unlike prior technological waves that triggered seismic shifts in the balance of states, the advent of AI threatens the primacy of nation-states. AI creators are on the brink of becoming geopolitical actors, solidifying their sovereignty over AI and ushering in an emerging "technopole" order, wherein technology companies wield power once reserved for nation-states. In the past decade, major technology firms have evolved into independent, sovereign actors in the digital realms they created. With AI's capacity to self-learn, it stands poised to become independent from its creators, challenging governance structures applied to previous technologies.
Global policymakers are awakening to the challenges posed by AI, leading to initiatives such as the G-7's "Hiroshima AI process" and the EU's AI Act. These underscore the dual nature of AI as a potentially destructive force and a deterrence factor, paralleling the historical analogy of nuclear weapons. The call for a global AI regulatory watchdog, akin to the IAEA for nuclear energy, further emphasizes the need for comprehensive governance.
Despite these efforts, nations like China and the U.S. continue to vie for AI dominance, mirroring historical patterns observed in nuclear technology. The challenge is clear: crafting a new governance framework tailored to this unique technology. For global AI governance to become a reality, the international system must transcend traditional notions of sovereignty and involve technology companies in decision-making. These actors may not derive legitimacy from conventional sources, but their inclusion is vital for effective AI governance.
The complexity and rapid advancement of AI render it incomprehensible for governments to keep pace. Initiatives like the Global Artificial Intelligence Directorate (GAID) aim to unite traditional geopolitical actors with corporations defining ICT trends across various sectors. A challenge as unprecedented as AI demands an original solution. Before policymakers delve into regulatory structures, they must agree on fundamental principles governing AI, constructing a framework that is precautionary, agile, inclusive, impermeable, and targeted. Building on these principles, policymakers should establish overlapping governance regimes focused on establishing facts, preventing an arms race, and managing the disruptive forces of this unparalleled technology.
The future is not merely approaching; it has already arrived. Whether defined by the positive advances enabled by AI or the negative disruptions it causes hinges on the actions of policymakers, technology companies, the academic community, and representatives of civil society today. In navigating the trajectory of AI, we collectively hold the key to unlocking its extraordinary potential for the benefit of humanity.